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Ministry of Construction Initiates Research Project on Population Analysis and Prediction in City Planning
According to the requirement of the deputy general secretary of the State Council, P. R. C., WANG Yang, the workshop on "Research on Population Analysis and Prediction in City Planning" was held on December 13th, 2005, by the Ministry of Construction (MOC) and the related departments. A special research project on the size of city population should be set up, headed by MOC with related departments taking part in, to provide a scientific basis for the revision of city planning. The Deputy Minister of MOC, QIU Baoxing, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech. Programs and plans of carrying out researches on population analysis and prediction in city planning were discussed on the meeting.

With Wang Yang's requirement being delivered on the meeting, the participants discussed the significance of carrying out both city population size research and the project of Research on Population Analysis and Prediction in City Planning drafted by MOC. Opinions were formed on the meeting that analyzing and predicting population size is an important part of city planning. The contradiction between population, resources and environment in China gets increasingly remarkable in the phase of rapid urbanization. To strengthen the research on population issues, particularly analyzing and predicting the population conditions scientifically, will lay a solid foundation for city planning. Therefore, every department should actively participate and closely cooperate with each other to conduct the research well.

According to the meeting, the research project involves different aspects of the economic society and is influenced by various complicated factors. It will highlight the analyses on factors that affect the distribution of population such as economy, society, industry, resources and environment, as well as the analyses on the trends and rules of population floating between urban and rural areas and between different regions. It should be an open project, which absorbs the existing work results of various departments, and summarizes, induces and evaluates the current methods of population analysis and prediction in city planning. Opinions from experts of different fields, especially the field of population issue, should be carefully treated. The research should demonstrate the population strategies of the country, in accordance with the "Principal Functional Zone" forwarded in the 11th Five-year Plan, and strengthen the classified instructions to cities of different scales and types. The organization of city master plan should be further standardized through the project, so as to strengthen the guidance on the population analysis and prediction work in city planning.

Consensus was reached on the meeting that the Ministry of Public Security and Ministry of Agriculture should be involved in the research in close relationship with the issues of city population, the reform of household management system and the transfer management of excessive labor force of the countryside to cities.

QIU Baoxing, Deputy Minister of MOC, stressed that the main purpose of carrying out researches on population analysis and prediction in city planning was to further standardize the procedure of predicting city population size, to exclude the disturbance of human factors at the most so as to scientifically analyze and predict the population development of city, and to make a good city planning organization so as to strengthen the management and control of the central government over the city scale increase. An integrated consideration should be given to how the different trends of various aspects including industrialization, urbanization, suburbization, mobilization and aging put effects onto the issue of population. The appropriate evaluations on the country's resources, environment and population distribution, as well as the theoretical basis and applicability of the current methods of population analysis and prediction, should be made based on the essential situation of China's economy, population, resources and environment after referring to the experiences of western developed countries. With a long term accumulation of the research on the issues of population in city planning, China Academy of Urban Planning & Design should play the role of technical supporter in the research.

According to QIU Baoxing, the research project on population analysis and prediction in city planning should include the researches on the floating and migration trends of the population of the country, and the influences of regionalism adjustment on population change; the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Agriculture should be involved in the research project; and the center China provinces whose migration population is larger than immigration population should be added into the investigation and research project. The research project can be divided into two phases. According to WANG Yang's requirement, the method and procedure of population analysis and prediction in city planning should be put forward by the end of January 2006, based on which the in-depth and systematic researches on the issues of population distribution and urbanization of the country should be organized continuously so as to provide development goals of city population, as well as the policies and measures guiding a reasonable distribution of city population that are suitable for the situation of the country. The Department of City and Countryside Planning of MOC will take charge of revising the research project according to the result of meeting discussions, as well as carrying out the investigation and research project. Each department should finish the summarization and evaluation of the population prediction method adopted in their works before December 18th, 2005.

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